2021 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

No more predictions: here is what every team should do

First Round

1.) Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

This is the biggest no-brainer in quite some time. Trevor Lawrence has an arm like a howitzer, he can run like a gazelle, and he’s accurate with the playmaking ability to make some of the most ridiculous throws you’ll ever see from a college prospect.

2.) New York Jets — Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Justin Fields has been ruthlessly picked apart by Big Draft’s habit of making bad faith arguments. His biggest weakness is he doesn’t sense pressure and will stand tall in the pocket until he’s walloped. However, he is not a one-read QB and he is not a slow decision-maker. In fact, Fields’ offense asked more of his decision-making post-snap than Lawrence’s or Wilson’s did of them. And he’s the most accurate QB in the entire class with his own insane arm talent and athleticism. Develop him and coach him and you’ll have a no-doubt franchise QB. Fields would be worthy of the first overall pick in many drafts.

3.) San Francisco 49ers — Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Known as the Mormon Manziel, Zach Wilson took the 2020 college season by storm, going from a complete unknown to the presumptive favorite for the second overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He has ridiculous arm talent too, with strong athleticism and the ability to make throws out of structure and on the run. His ability to make plays in structure is slightly less tested and his quality of competition was dookie, but the talent is certainly there to justify a high selection.

4.) Denver Broncos (via ATL) — Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

From the Falcons’ perspective, they can still get an elite player after leveraging a bidding war into a big haul. In this scenario, they avoid trading with the division rival Panthers and don’t have to move back as far as the Patriots’ pick at 15.

From the Broncos perspective, they spent the offseason preparing this roster to be a QB away from having a big season. That QB isn’t Drew Lock. Instead, the Broncos swing for the fences and add NDSU QB Trey Lance.

Though he only got to play in a single exhibition game this season that went extremely poorly, Trey Lance still has a lot of believers in the league. A lot. He has tremendous arm strength and flashes some pinpoint throws on key downs. His running ability is a plus, though in the NFL he probably shouldn’t get quite so many designed runs. While his upside is on par with all the other top QBs in this class, Lance’s accuracy sometimes abandoned him on tape, and he left some plays on the field with head-scratching decisions.

5.) Cincinatti Bengals — Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

The Bengals really can’t go wrong here choosing between Penei Sewell or a pass catcher. In this mock, they go with Sewell for a couple reasons. First of all, the track record of Day 2 wide receivers is miles better than the track record of Day 2 offensive tackles. Secondly, the Bengals need to protect QB Joe Burrow at all costs before he becomes skittish and develops bad habits, and the existence of Jonah Williams and Riley Reiff should not influence this decision at all. Sewell is too rare and valuable of a prospect, and he would instantly be the second most valuable asset on the Bengals roster. Offensive tackle prospects are not supposed to dominate at 19 years old like Sewell did. He’s NFL ready and has all the athletic upside you could want at the position. Move Jonah Williams inside and get your best five offensive linemen on the field.

6.) Miami Dolphins — Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

The Dolphins have their pick of the pass catchers in this class, and they go with LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase. Chase can win at all three levels, and he put up one of the best seasons of any collegiate wide receiver ever as a teenager. He can win at all three levels and is a technician when running routes. He can sometimes be underestimated because his tools aren’t the loudest, but he’s impossible to press and can beat you with strength, speed, and everything in between.

7.) Detriot Lions — Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

The Detroit Lions should also be looking at pass catcher, and they go with Alabama speedster Jaylen Waddle. The Lions go with Waddle over teammate DeVonta Smith because his profile is one that has suceeded in the NFL, and the Lions avoid chasing an outlier in Smith, who has the BMI of a candy cane. For Waddle’s part, his speed plays both in run-afte- catch and downfield situations — he’s a legitimately good football player, not a one-dimensional speedster. His speed is absolutlely game-changing and will influence how defenses approach the Lions’ passing game.

8.) Carolina Panthers — Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

Yes, I’m fully aware the Panthers need a QB and that they’ve been trying like hell to aggressively move up for one. However, this mock draft is based on what I would do, and I don’t like Mac Jones as a top ten pick. The Panthers are picking top ten because Teddy Bridgewater is milquetoast and doesn’t have the improvisational skills to make plays out of structure or the arm talent to push the ball down the field to playmakers DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. The solution is not to settle for another QB lacking physical traits. Instead, the Panthers should continue preparing the roster for their eventual franchise QB, solidying an offensive line that is looking shoddy at best. With their right tackle playing on the tag, questionable contracts given to subpar interior offensive linemen in free agency, and dubious left tackle play, the Panthers go with Northwestern standout Rashawn Slater. He’s an exceptional football player who should stick at tackle, and he’s ready to start on Day 1 and provide above-average play at left tackle with Pro Bowl potential.

9.) Atlanta Falcons (via DEN) — Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

The board falls perfectly for the Falcons, who traded back for a haul and are still able to grab the player they were likely seriously considering at fourth overall. The team has many opportunities over the course of this draft to improve the defense, but I can personally guarantee it will be years until any NFL franchise has a chance to draft a tight end prospect as gifted as Florida’s Kyle Pitts. Adding Pitts to an offense that already features Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will make the Falcons nearly unstoppable and support the remainder of Matt Ryan’s career. We’ve also seen that this offense is capable of supporting TE1 production back when Austin Hooper had a breakout season. With all respect to Hooper, Pitts can blow him out of the water from Day 1.

10.) Dallas Cowboys — Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

The board has also fallen perfectly for the Cowboys, who fill their biggest need with an elite prospect. Patrick Surtain II has an extremely high floor — he just knows how to play the cornerback position. While some members of #DraftTwitter have been mocking South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn to the Cowboys, Surtain has the best CB tape in this class. Overreacting to Horn’s pro day, particularly when Surtain had his own incredible showing, is just clickbait.

11.) New York Giants — Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami

The Giants had a solid offseason, finally adding a pass catcher to the roster whose skillset isn’t redundant with all the others’. With a strong group of offensive skill players, the Giants are ready to give QB Daniel Jones a fair shot. However, the Giants still desperately need talent at edge rusher, and Jaelan Phillips is the only one in this class who can justify a top 15 pick. His previous medical retirement due to concussions is risky, but Dave Gettleman’s job is hanging on by a thread. The Giants should swing for the fences with a prospect who most years would go top five. Phillips has everything you want in an edge rusher: size, athleticism, and a wide array of pass rush moves and counters.

12.) Philadelphia Eagles — DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

The Eagles come out as winners of their trade down with the Dolphins, landing DeVonta Smith while collecting a first round pick for their troubles. While Smith’s thin frame is a concern, it was not a problem in college and the Eagles bet it will continue not being a problem at the NFL level. Smith put up one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from a collegiate wide receiver, winning the 2020 Heisman Trophy for his efforts.

13.) Los Angeles Chargers — Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

While Chargers fans will be accustomed to seeing Christian Darrisaw here, I actually prefer Teven Jenkins. He’s much more consistent snap to snap, and for an offensive tackle inconsistency can be a big problem. Jenkins has an accurate and powerful punch that could stun a rhino. Darrisaw might have the higher end atheltic upside, but he looks disinterested just often enough that I question what’s going on in his thought process.

14.) Minnesota Vikings — Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

The Vikings will be torn between drafting an edge rusher or an interior offensive lineman. While Alijah Vera-Tucker is a better prospect if we ignore positional value, Michigan standout Kwity Paye plays a premium position and has the athletic upside to be worth this pick many times over. Plus, the Vikings have been burned drafting interior offensive lineman in the first round before, and it’s a position that can successfully addressed on Day 2. On the other hand, Paye has unbelievable strength packed into his dense frame, and it shows up on the field. Combine that with his agility and you’ve got an edge prospect who is ready to partner with Danielle Hunter.

15.) New England Patriots — Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

It’s finally time for Mac Jones to come off the board. Bill Belichik has shown no interest in sticking around to see through a patient rebuild, and the retail-priced roster is ready to support a QB. While Cam Newton had nothing to work with last year at the offensive skill positions, let’s be honest with ourselves: he’s cooked. The team isn’t going far with him at QB. Instead, the Patriots roll the dice on a decent QB prospect who in the best case scenario can execute a timing-based offense.

16.) Arizona Cardinals — Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

The Cardinals made some aggressive moves this offseason, hoping to take the next step and assert themselves as a contender in a tough division. Their secondary is still lacking however, and cornerback Jaycee Horn would add some high-end talent to that position group. He’s not as NFL-ready as Surtain, as his grabbiness strikes me more as a bad habit when he’s beaten off the line and less like a calculated risk. However, for a player as physical as he is, he’s also unbelievably fluid, and you won’t find a more competitive corner at the catch point. Throw in his rare athleticism and you’ve really got something here.

17.) Las Vegas Raiders — Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

The Raiders need some tackle help, and Darrisaw is a rare athlete for his position. He’s one of those dancing bears who should not be able to move as effortlessly as he does for somebody as big and strong as he is. He needs some coaching to get the best out of him every snap, but any coach who can accomplish that will be handsomely rewarded with a franchise tackle.

18.) Miami Dolphins — Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia

The Dolphins should resist the urge to make a luxury pick at linebacker or running back, instead adding the last top tier edge prospect in this draft. Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari can play with his hand in the dirt or standing up, and in either situation he’ll hold his own against the run while getting to the quarterback. He has one of the best signature pass rush moves in the class, swiping the OT’s hands down and then attacking his outside shoulder once the tackle is off-balance.

19.) Washington Football Team — Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

The WFT had a solid season last year, taking advantage of one of the worst divisions of all time to make a surprise playoff appearance. With one of the best defensive lines in the league, the WFT is a QB away from being a sustainable contender. However, they do need to improve their offensive line in anticipation of whenever they finally take a swing on a franchise QB. OT Liam Eichenberg is a polished football player who is ready to step right in a solidify an offensive tackle spot. He doesn’t have the same atheltic upside as Samuel Cosmi, but he knows how to play the position and is a really good football player.

20.) Chicago Bears — Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG, USC

Alijah Vera-Tucker is lower in this mock than you’re used to seeing, and if this were a predictive mock he would be going top 15. However, the positional value of the guard position pushes him down, and in fact the Bears draft him to play tackle in this scenario. If it doesn’t work out, no harm no foul you can plug him in at guard and prosper. But the reward of Vera-Tucker working out at tackle is enough that you should take the chance. He may not have the physical or athletic traits you typically expect from a tackle, but he’s a damn good football player and could stick there, if given the chance.

21.) Indianapolis Colts — Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas

The Colts’ biggest need by far is at tackle, and Samuel Cosmi’s athletic traits make him an intriguing prospect. He’s not just a project, as he gets a lot out of his athletic gifts already. My problem with Cosmi is that I’m not sure his weaknesses are easy to address, as they seem to be a direct result of his high center of gravity. He struggles to get low, and he can be thrown off balance by power moves from edge rushers. If he can mitigate that issue, then the advantages of his size will truly shine and he can reach his considerable ceiling.

22.) Tennessee Titans — Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

The Titans pull a hammy sprinting this card up to the podium. Like before, there will be many chances to address the defense, but Rashod Bateman is too good a football player to pass up. He may not have any loud traits, but that’s because they’re all so above-average that they blend together. He gets the most out of his athleticism with footwork that helps him throttle down and change direction faster than his matchup. He has just enough long speed to make catches deep down the field and outrun pursuing defensive backs. His hands and ball tracking are both elite and he can make contested catches all over the field. The Titans add a three-level impact playmaker to complement A.J. Brown after the departure of Corey Davis.

23.) New York Jets — Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern

The Jets need some talent at corner, and they go with Northwestern standout Greg Newsome II. Newsome has blazing speed, great footwork, and comptiveness at the catch point. New head coach Robert Saleh will love deploying him in his defense.

24.) Pittsburgh Steelers — Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State

With Alejandro Villanueva potentially leaving in free agency and showing signs of aging, as well as an uninspiring competition between Chuks Okorafor and Zach Banner developing on the right side of the line, the Steelers should address their offensive line early. Dillon Radunz was a stud left tackle for Trey Lance at NDSU before showing he could more than hold his own against FBS edge rushers at the Senior Bowl. He’s NFL ready but perhaps with a lower ceiling than some of the tackles taken before him.

25.) Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

Like other teams with multiple picks, the Jaguars should avoid making a luxury pick here. Trevon Moehrig is easily worth a late first round pick and fills a big need on the backend of the Jags’ defense. The only thing he’s lacking is the speed to truly cover sideline to sideline in single high coverage. However, that’s an exceedingly rare trait and he has everything else you need. He’ll be the smartest player on your defense from the moment he steps on the field, he tackles, and he makes plays on the ball.

26.) Cleveland Browns — Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

The board didn’t fall kindly for the Browns, who would have preferred a top corner or edge prospect here. Instead, they add the only interior defensive line prospect in this draft who deserves to go on Day 1. Christian Barmore closed the season on an absolute tear, putting up great tape during the college football playoff. He needs to be more consistent snap-to-snap, but he has the size and pass rush moves to be an impact player at a position where the league is sorely lacking difference-makers. While the DT room would become crowded for the Browns, Sheldon Richardson and Malik Jackson will both be free agents next year and the Browns will need cheap production out of their defensive interior.

27.) Baltimore Ravens — Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU

It’s no secret the Ravens would like to improve their wide receiver room after making attempts for several targets in free agency before ultimately settling for Sammy Watkins. Terrace Marshall Jr has an appealing size/speed combo with a wide catch radius that can help out the sometimes erratic Lamar Jackson. He has occasional drop issues, which is not what Ravens fans will want to hear, but unlike Marquise Brown, Marshall has the catch radius to haul in passes away from his frame. After LSU deployed Marshall in the slot this past season, he gained valuable experience as a three-level weapon instead of being just a deep threat.

28.) New Orleans Saints — Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

Caleb Farley’s red flags are concerning, but at this point we are starting to run out of players who are worth a first round pick. There is a non-zero chance that Farley’s back problems hinder him throughout his career. However, the Saints have a need at corner and may even be unable to retain Marshon Lattimore as they continue paying the piper for their earlier salary cap gynmastics meant to maximize Drew Brees’ last couple seasons. If Farley stays healthy and looks like the same player we saw in college, he’ll be the best corner in this draft and restock the Saints’ elite top-end talent.

29.) Green Bay Packers — Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

I’m pretty sure the Packers are gonna take a heat check and make two more awful picks this year, but on the off-chance they feel like helping Aaron Rodgers make it past the NFC Championship game, they should try getting a competent pass catcher next to Davante Adams. Elijah Moore is an elite slot receiver prospect — my comparison for him is Jarvis Landry, but with deep speed. He has precise footwork honed from hours and hours of practice to maximize his elite agility. He can win deep and create after the catch, he plays big over the middle of the field, and he holds on to the football. Unlike Kadarius Toney and Rondale Moore, he actually won routes down the field in college and isn’t a gadget player.

30.) Buffalo Bills — Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia

The Bills could use a corner next to stud Tre’Davious White. Eric Stokes is somewhat lacking in the fluidity and suddenness departments, but his speed is elite and he competes at the catch point. He can learn the finer parts of the game while White takes tougher assignments.

31.) Kansas City Chiefs — Brady Christensen, OT, BYU

Anybody who watched Zach Wilson’s tape this year couldn’t help but notice the left tackle throwing dudes around. Christensen, like Wilson, has concerns regarding the quality of the competition he faced, but you can only play who is in front of you and Christensen dominated like he should have. An elite pro day cemented him as a player who can justify a first round selection. The Chiefs for their part need offensive tackles badly, and the value matches the need here.

32.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

The Bucs should resist the temptation to chase after a running back and instead add developmental talent to a position with aging contributors. Jason Pierre-Paul isn’t getting any younger, and the Bucs can bring in Joseph Ossai to eventually succeed him. Yes, the Bucs are especially interested in getting players who can contibute during the last year or two of Tom Brady’s career, and the good news is that at edge rusher you need a stable of capable players to rotate in and out. Ossai can play situationally his rookie year while the Bucs coaching staff gets the most out of his considerable athletic upside and relentless motor.

Notable Omissions

Micah Parsons

Not only does he play a non-premium position, but the off-field stuff scares me. There are enough character red flags that I didn’t think it was worth rolling the dice on a linebacker.

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

He’s a really fun player to watch, but he’s not too good at traditional linebacker duties. Now, you would be correct in arguing JOK is not a traditional linebacker, but I think the NFL track record of college football players with non-traditional college roles isn’t great, and he’s a bit of a tweener. As it stands, he either plays a non-premium position, you have to teach him to play safety more or less from scratch, or you have to do something new with him that we don’t really have a prototype for in the NFL. My rule of thumb is that if you’re depending on your defensive coordinator to create a new role for a player in order for the pick to hit, it probably won’t. He’s a good football player, and he will probably go very early in the draft, but I couldn’t find the right landing spot in the first round.

All the running backs

For real, stop drafting running backs in the first round. If your run game sucked, improve the OL and add a deep passing threat to peel a safety out of the box. Grab a running back in the second round or later. If your team doesn’t have many needs, then add players at positions that rotate a lot such as the defensive line, or add players who could fill a valuable role a season or two down the line.